Significant Cuts in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Could Save the Arctic
17.04.2009 - Atmosphere & Space, Water & Oceans, Ice & Snow, Other, Arctic
Scientists from the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) are raising hopes that it's still possible to save the Arctic. Their study suggests that a 70% reduction in greenhouse gases this century could have significant impacts in the Arctic region.
Although this research indicates that there is no avoiding significant global warming, NCAR scientist Warren Washington says, "If the world were to implement this level of emission cuts, we could stabilize the threat of climate change and avoid a catastrophe."
The research team used supercomputer simulations to compare a business-as-usual scenario against one in which dramatic carbon dioxide emission cuts were implemented within the decade. They assumed that carbon dioxide emission levels could be maintained at 450 ppm at the end of this century (a target which has been judged plausible by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program by adopting conservation practices and using new technologies). In contrast, global carbon dioxide emissions could rise to 750 ppm by 2100 if nothing is done to reduce them.
Should carbon dioxide emissions be held at 450 ppm, effects in the Arctic region by 2100 would include:
- Temperature increase: 0.6°C
- Sea level rise due to thermal expansion: 14 cm (without taking into account sea level rise due to melting ice sheets and glaciers)
- Arctic sea ice: summer extent loses about a quarter of its volume but stabilizes by 2100
- Arctic warming: cut almost in half
- Significant regional changes in precipitation: cut in half
- Climate system: stabilizes by 2100
Should carbon dioxide emissions rise to 750 ppm, effects by 2100 would include:
- Temperature increase: almost 2.2°C
- Sea level rise due to thermal expansion: 22 cm (without taking into account sea level rise due to melting ice sheets and glaciers)
- Arctic sea ice: summer extent shrinks by at least three-quarters by 2100 and continues to shrink thereafter
- Climate system: continues to warm
