Shifts in Climate Systems Could Occur without Warning
11.02.2010 - Atmosphere & Space, Water & Oceans, Ice & Snow, Flora & Fauna, Bi-polar
A new study from the University of California at Davis published in the journal Ecology Letters shows that predicting when climate “tipping points” will occur is more difficult than initially thought.
In light of climate change, most climate scientists are looking for any warning sign that might indicate a sudden shift in natural systems so they can either prevent these changes or improve preparations for them. So far, they have identified three “tipping points”:
- The complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice in summer;
- The acceleration of ice loss from Greenlandic and Antarctic Ice Sheets;
- Ocean acidification resulting from carbon dioxide absorption.
However the new study indicates that any shift with potentially large consequences could happen without warning, according to UC Davis ecologist Alan Hastings. The team’s conclusions imply that some effects of climate change on ecosystems might already have past the threshold by the time they are discovered, which makes it difficult - if not impossible - to return the system to a more secure state.
Although focusing on models from ecology, the findings of the study could be applicable to other complex systems, particularly those based on human dynamics such as fisheries or financial markets.
