Sea Level Rise Could Exceed Previous Forecasts
21.04.2008 - Other
A UK/ Finnish team of scientists brought new data to light at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) annual meeting suggesting the world's sea level would rise between 0.8m and 1.5m by the end of the 21st century. This new insight significantly exceeds last year's forecast presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The 28-43cm sea level rise predicted for 2100 and suggested by the IPCC has been judged too conservative. An article published on the BBC's science website gives visibility to a new computer model developed by a team led by Svetlana Jevrejeva, from the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory (POL) in the UK. This computer model links temperatures to sea levels for the last two millennia and is able to emulate sea levels using the input of data that has been observed by tide gauges over the past 300 years.
One of the previous difficulties experienced by the IPCC was to incorporate the "accelerated" melting of polar ice sheets as the water temperatures warmed up. This was mainly caused by a lack of understanding in the processes involved. However, many scientists do expect the current observable sea level rise (3mm per year) to accelerate over the course of the century, due to changes in the Greenland and in West Antarctic ice sheets.
If the new projections suggested by the new computer model are correct, the impacts on low-lying countries and populations (90% of Bangladesh lays within a metre or so of current sea level) could be devastating.
