Scientists Working on Early Warning System for the Arctic
31.01.2011 - Atmosphere & Space, Water & Oceans, Ice & Snow, Human Dimension, Arctic
Scientists gathered at the 2011 Arctic Frontiers conference in Norway tried to agree on an early warning system that could monitor sudden climate shifts. In the light of the considerable ice melt that has been happening in Greenland, the scientists stressed the importance of implementing an early warning system to monitor changes. The main question was how to identify dangerous signs of instability - such as melting glaciers or a disappearance of Arctic sea ice in summer.
A study published in the journal Nature in 2009 showed how various systems from ocean currents to wildlife populations often show signs of increased variability before radical shifts. Yet while unusual variability could be the best indicator, other trends such as changing correlations between two parameters such as to what extent rising temperatures match declining sea ice extent could serve as indicators. Whether or not the Arctic should be watched is not the question; rather it is what should be watched.
According to Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, recent studies indicate that temperature rises of between 1.3 and 2.3°C might trigger a runaway thaw. While almost 200 government representatives agreed to a limited average global temperature rise of less than 2°C, global temperatures have already risen by 0.8°C. In the light of these observations, Rahmsrof said, "Greenland shows that two degree target may not be enough."
