New Modelling Approach to Estimate Sea Ice Thickness
06.03.2008 - Other
A new modelling approach was recently developed to estimate sea ice thickness by scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey and the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow. This is the first model to be entirely based on historical observations.
Sea ice motion, solar radiation and air temperature to which the ice was exposed were collected monthly while parcels of ice were followed backwards in time to up to three years. The model was constructed by fitting these data with an ice parcel's known thickness, obtained from measurements by submarine cruises and surface coring missions. The aim was to determine how the thickness of sea ice changes in response to different environmental conditions.
Using this new technique, the thickness of Arctic sea ice was estimated from 1982 to 2003. Results showed that the average ice thickness and total ice volume fluctuated together during the early study period, peaking in the late 1980s before declining until the mid-1990s. Thereafter, ice thickness slightly increased but the total volume of sea ice did not increase.
Scientists propose that the volume stayed constant during the study's latter years. While the ice was thickening in the high latitudes of the Arctic, the surrounding sea ice was melting. Sea ice, however, can only become so thick, and if Arctic sea ice continues to melt, the total volume of sea ice in the Arctic will decrease.
