Major Ecosystem Shifts in Arctic Likely by End of 21st Century
04.03.2011 - Flora & Fauna, Arctic
Vast changes in climates and ecossytems in Alaska, Canada, large parts of Eastern Europe, northern Asia and Scandinavia will likely take place as needle-leaf and broadleaf forests push northward into areas once too inhospitable to support them. These changes, say a team of scientists from the Unviersity of Nebraska Lincoln and the Korean Polar Research Institute (KOPDI) in a study published in the journal Climate Dynamics, are part of a reorganization of Arctic climates which will likely happen by the end of the 21st century.
The scientists analyzed 16 global climate models from 1950 to 2099 and combined it with more than 100 years of observational data to evaluate the possible impact of climate change on the Arctic's sensitive ecosystems. This study is one of the first to apply a specific climate classification system to a comprehensive examination of climate changes throughout the Arctic.
Based on the climate projections, the new study shows that the areas of the Arctic now dominated by polar and sub-polar climate types will decline and be replaced by more temperate climates by 2099.
The study also predicted:
- A rise in the annual average surface temperature in Arctic regions.
- Stronger warming along Arctic coastal regions, with moderate warming along the North Atlantic Rim.
- Redistribution of climate types, with regional differences.
- The replacement of tundra in Alaska and northern Canada by boreal forests and shrubs by 2059.
- Significant reductions in the ice cover over Greenland as a consequence of melting snow and ice.
