Arctic Climate Models Polar Bear as a Threatened Species
12.03.2008 - Other
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) is currently considering a proposal to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act. This proposal is largely based on scientific models of the Arctic climate. Scientists from the International Polar Bear Science Team evaluated existing models to identify those that would best predict future conditions in the Arctic such as sea-ice extend, crucial to the polar bear's survival.
Eric DeWeaver presented the results in a U.S. Geological Survey report submitted to the FWS which explains that, for Arctic sea ice, the trend is clear. Even though there is always a certain level of uncertainty, all climate models point to widespread reductions in sea ice over the coming decades. Escalating habitat losses anticipated due to global warming and other pressures are expected to severely impact bear populations in the near future, with near-extinction likely to occur by the end of the century.
The role of climate science in this decision process goes to show that models, even though they are imperfect and abstract by nature, can be used to achieve very tangible results.
