Antarctic Temperatures Disagree with Climate Model Predictions
20.02.2007 - Other
Scientists from the Byrd Polar Research Center at Ohio State University reported that Antarctic temperatures during the late 20th century did not climb as had been predicted by many global climate models.
Last year, the same research group reported in the journal Science that Antarctic snowfall hadn't increased in the last 50 years. Both these observations go against most climate models, predicting that precipitation and temperature will increase over Antarctica with a warming of the planet.
Scientists said the disagreement between climate model predictions and the snowfall and temperature records does not necessarily mean that the models are wrong. These models are global ones and shouldn't be expected to be equally exact for all locations.
Climate variability is important in Antarctica and only a small amount of detailed data is available - there are perhaps only 100 weather stations on that continent compared to the thousands spread across the U.S. and Europe.
The increase in the ozone hole above the central Antarctic continent may also be affecting temperatures on the mainland. If there is less ozone, there is less absorption of the ultraviolet light and the stratosphere doesn't warm as much, meaning that winter-like conditions would remain later in the spring than normal, lowering temperatures.
The collapse of ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula could partly be explained by the strengthening of the westerlies (the system of winds that surrounds the Antarctic continent) over the last decades.
