International Polar Year Focuses on Climate Change

28 Sep 2006 - Special Reports, Logistics, Atmosphere & Space, Water & Oceans, Land & Geology, Ice & Snow, Flora & Fauna, Human Dimension, Arctic, Antarctic

Hurricane Gordon

Of the nearly 220 international research projects endorsed by the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-08, around half will be looking at the effects of climate change in the Polar Regions, and the implications of this change for the Earth's climate system as a whole. In this feature, SciencePoles examines the research that will be carried out, as well as its timeliness in advancing scientific and public understanding of climate change.

Largely out of sight, and often out of mind, the Polar Regions nevertheless play a central role in the Earth's climate system. Not only do they make major contributions to driving atmospheric currents, determining sea level and supporting the marine food chain, they are also our climate archives (providing evidence of a million years of climate history) and an early warning system (signalling the extent of current change).

For these reasons, the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-08 will be of great importance in shinning the spotlight on change in the Polar Regions, as well as explaining why this change has such major implications for the Earth and its inhabitants.

Legacy and promise

Since 1882, International Polar Years have risen to the challenges of the day, addressing and providing answers to some of the most pressing questions in the atmospheric, marine and Earth sciences.

From March 2007 to March 2009, scientists from all over the world taking part in the fourth International Polar Year (IPY) will once again work together to address some of the most critical questions of our time. This time, they will be focusing on the environmental status of the Polar Regions, better understanding past and present change, better predicting future change, and better mapping the links between polar and global processes.

How they go about their research will largely be determined by their respective disciplines, but also on the regions and environments in which they will be working. Overall, it will lead to an increase in data that will help to close gaps in knowledge, to interlink disciplines and to refine climate models and predictions.

Studying change in the Arctic

In the Arctic alone, some 70 IPY research projects will study climate variability, the response of the Arctic to global warming, and the implications of this response for the Earth system.

Whilst some studies will operate at the micro level, looking at ratios of chemical isotopes in atmosphere, ocean and ice to examine climate change; others will adopt the macro view obtaining data through the deployment of Arctic land and ocean monitoring systems and stations, or by using satellites.

Arctic ocean

On the Arctic Ocean, researchers will study: changes in sea-ice properties and processes; sea ice extent and depletion; ocean-ice-atmosphere interactions; Arctic paleoclimate (the ancient Arctic); and the role of the Bering Straits in past rapid change in both ocean currents and climate.

This research will provide information on the extent of past and present climate variations across the Arctic region, but perhaps even more importantly, will help to predict the speed, extent and effects of future change as a result of global warming. Of particular importance will be the effects of retreating sea ice on the Earth's albedo, with the increasingly open ocean absorbing more solar energy as the highly reflective sea ice disappears and its cooling effect diminishes.

Marine biologists will study fish ecosystems, monitor the health of polar bears, seals and whales, track fish and mammal migration, and forecast changes in Arctic ocean biodiversity in response to changes in temperature and salinity. This will help to assess the increasing threat posed to polar bear survival by retreating sea ice, as well as the threats posed by climate change to the Arctic food chain.

Land

On land, researchers will monitor changes in Arctic lake ice cover, snow cover, deep permafrost, surface permafrost and other soil environments in order to assess the speed of melting, the changes this will impose on Arctic ecosystems, and the increasing threat posed to infrastructure as previously frozen soils turn soft.

In this context, scientists will also document the rapid and dramatic changes to terrestrial vegetation and increase in biomass that are expected to occur across the circumpolar Arctic as a result of warming and climate change. Their studies will also address the northern expansion of coniferous forests, and potential new agricultural development.

Also under scrutiny will be:

The positive and negative feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, and their crucial significance for understanding and forecasting global change. This includes carbon, water and energy exchanges and the release of greenhouse gases such as methane, which seeps out into the atmosphere as permafrost thaws, thus adding to the greenhouse effect and accentuating global warming.
The Arctic hydrological cycle, or the response of the Arctic Ocean to variations in freshwater input from rivers, and net precipitation over the ocean. Of particular interest will be the impact of changes on ocean currents where it may lead to the slowing or shutting down of the North Atlantic Gulf Stream, with potentially drastic effects on Western European climate.
Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance, and recent changes in surface elevation and discharge speed in outlet glacier systems along the margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet. This research will have far reaching implications for predicting future global sea level rise. If the Greenland ice sheet melts in its entirety, then sea levels would rise approximately 7 metres.
The effect of climate change on reindeer herding and reindeer herders, and the impacts of climate change on people across the Arctic. Of particular importance will be studies of indigenous knowledge, through inhabitants' first hand accounts, and of the challenges and threats to the way of life of Arctic communities.

Studying change in the Antarctic

Of the approximately 40 IPY research projects focusing on the impacts of climate change on the Antarctic, one of the most significant will be the multinational Census of Antarctic Marine Life (CAML).

CAML is a 5-year project that will focus the attention of the public on the ice-bound oceans of Antarctica during the International Polar Year (IPY) in 2007/08. Its objective is to study the evolution of life in Antarctic waters to determine how this has influenced the diversity of the present biota, and to use these observations to predict how it might respond to future change.

Southern Ocean

By deploying an international fleet of research vessels, CAML will use the Southern Ocean as a privileged laboratory in which to monitor biotic modifications and adaptation of key species in relation to environmental changes, especially where it influenced by sea ice extent, water temperature fluctuations and carbon intake.

The project will also study the Southern Ocean food chain, and multi-species interactions and fluctuations in populations, extending from plankton and krill, to the penguins, seals, whales and other species that migrate to the Southern Ocean to feed during the summer months. It will provide a broad overview of the response of the Southern Ocean to climate change, and how this in turn will affect marine life and ocean currents.

In addition to CAML, there will be other IPY marine based projects studying deep sea biodiversity, fish indigenous to Antarctic and sub-Antarctic habitats, and their response to change: Once again, with crucial relevance to the food chain of the Southern Ocean and beyond.

As with the Arctic Ocean, fluctuations in Antarctic sea ice and its repercussions on plankton growth and average global albedo will be monitored. This will be in addition to studies of other aspects of ocean-ice-atmosphere interaction and the role of the Antarctic region in driving world climate.

Antarctic continent

Across the Antarctic continent itself, extensive crossings will study the Antarctic ice mass balance and (as in Greenland) study surface accumulation and ice discharge in an attempt to determine the current role of the cryosphere (global snow and ice system) on the present, and future contribution of land-based ice sheets to sea level change. More specifically, these will attempt to provide answers to the key, and still unresolved question of whether the East and West Antarctic ice sheets are growing or shrinking as a result of precipitation trends - and thus of how much fresh water or sea level rise they are absorbing or contributing.

Ice cores will continue to be extracted from different locations across the Antarctic continent in order to acquire more data for understanding Antarctic and global climate evolution over the past 900,000 years, as well as any recent, abrupt changes. The data obtained will also be fed into climate models to assess potential future climate trends.

The unstable West Antarctic and Amundsen ice sheets will also be further studied to better understand their operation and the speed at which they flow into the sea (rate of discharge). Because these lie on water (rather than on rock, like the East Antarctic ice sheet), researchers will also continue to try and determine the potential for their melt and breakup as a result of increasing temperatures in surrounding ocean and atmosphere. A collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would contribute a potential 6 to 7 metre contribution to global sea level rise.

Biology

Still on the continent, biologists will study microbiological and ecological responses to environmental change, looking at polar life (from microbes to small plants) that manage to survive in terrestrial and ice habitats and that also flourish in Antarctic sub-surface lakes. Scientists will be looking at how these organisms 'living at the edge' are able, or indeed unable, to adapt to any degree of environmental change.

Atmosphere

Finally, atmospheric scientists and meteorologists will be studying atmospheric accumulation and circulation in relation to climate: with particular attention being paid to the ozone layer, UV radiation, solar-atmosphere linkages and aerosol distribution.

Desired outcomes

With its ambitious and comprehensive programme of research focusing on the impacts of change in both the Arctic and the Antarctic, the International Polar Year 2007-08 will not only be responding to an opportunity, but will also be taking on a huge responsibility in its mission to provide answers to urgent questions of crucial significance for billions of people worldwide.

In an interdependent Earth system, the nature, speed and impacts of climate change in the Polar Regions affect us all. The Director of the IPY International Programme Office, Dr David Carlson, brought this into focus when he was interviewed by SciencePoles in November 2005:

"... people are going to ask what is going to happen (to the Polar Regions)? How fast is it going to happen? What is going to happen to sea levels? When is it going to happen? How much? So I think the bargain that we have today is that the IPY is going to have to provide answers... But I also think that scientists are ready to do that."

By: Jean de Pomereu